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Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: February 27th, 2025

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  • It certainly has not gone unnoticed in Moscow that the only way for Ukrainian drones to hit targets off the coast of Libya is to fly over NATO territory. If NATO countries let Ukrainians drones fly overhead unhindered, then Ukraine can take the shadow fleet down one vessel at a time, without NATO or Europe having committed any act of war.

    The economic noose is tightening. The biggest risk to this operation is that the price of oil shoots up again because of the “situation” in Venezuela.


  • You are absolutely right in the overarching logic, but I believe we have interacted with the current iteration of AI long enough to know that consumer demand is underwhelming, and ROI for enterprise investment is near zero.

    In your Olympics analogy, it would be like every four years a city spending tons of money on Olympic games that attract a lot fewer visitors than predicted, just because the other cities did in the past.

    Honestly, I am reminded of the early days of the Internet, when all VCs were funding “generic sales startup” because they had said No to Bezos and Amazon had exploded. It wasn’t about making a good investment, it was about being able to say they hadn’t slept on the biggest opportunity they in fact missed.


  • That’s not entirely fair, though. The key part of the statement is, “to service a demand that doesn’t exist.” The problem with AI is that there is little user demand for it, so all the capacity being aggressively built is going to eventually hit a brick wall.

    I shouldn’t say there is little user demand. There is little paying user demand, but that’s the thing that makes and breaks investments the size of these. Enshittification is built-in, and for a change the cost of the data centers is a visible reminder that someone is going to pay, eventually.

    Given the size of the players involved and their political connections, I assume the chump is going to be the tax payer in the end. That is going to be fun to watch: billionaires getting a massive bailout while you are getting kicked out of health insurance.