This report with Americans for Financial Reform is an urgent warning: it details how the money pouring into AI could spiral into an economy-wide crisis and lays out recommendations for policymakers on how to keep an AI crash from devastating ordinary people’s finances.
Check what funds it’s invested in, most US or Global indexes/funds will have significant AI/tech exposure as it’s so valuable.
Proper investment platforms will have an “x-ray” view that shows you what you actually own between all of your funds, this can be useful to understand what you are currently invested in.
Look for regional or industry specific funds and spread money between them. (You want quite a few if your doing this to spread risk)
Bonds (loans for countries and big companies) are traditionally safer and drop less in recessions, however many governments are already in a lot of debt and the risk of another bank crisis could effect their value significantly. Bonds also lose value when interest rates go up, so if inflation continues to go up they become dangerous too.
Cash is fine unless your bank goes bust, and if it’s that tits up, do you trust your government’s deposit guarantee?
Gold can be ok short term, but it’s already up a massive amount and could drop like a stone if things DON’T go bad.
Nothing is foolproof, otherwise everyone would be doing it, best is to spread your risk so your not all in on something.
If you aren’t trying to “time the market” why worry about moving things around? Just buy the dip and keep your auto contributions going. It’ll come back eventually right?
That is generally my feeling, yes. But if I were a time traveler there’d still be two or three events I’d probably avoid. Will this be one worth avoiding?
I get that the question is in contradiction to the statement about timing the market; I guess I’m just thinking out loud and wondering other people takes on it is?
Fair enough. A money market is probably the best bet, the issue is always timing tho. I’ve been in mostly cash since the start of the year and missed like 10%+ at least
That being said, idk how much higher the market can really go with so much downward pressure from hormuz/gas and by extension inflation, AI bills coming due, auto/student/car loan crisis, t-bill rates jumping, idk im sure i could think of more but you get the idea.
I dont regret my decision tho, id rather be early than late in this situation.
I dumped all of my risky stocks prior to the SpaceX IPO and reallocated my 401k to bonds. Im about 90% bonds at the moment.
On my active trading account I’m in bonds funds like BIL and SGOV and dividend funds like SCHD. I have some individual stocks in relatively safe industries that should bounce back.
You can never predict the future but it feels like a lot of headwinds on a market who’s gains are concentrated in only handful of companies. I’m ok with sitting out for 12 months or until there is some clarity in the market. I have a major renovation going on right now so spending my cash on property improvements is ok with me.
It depends on how close you are to retiring. If you are more than 10 years away, you are probably better off doing nothing differently. Look at the inevitable dip as a buying opportunity.
Even if you are close, you still need to be careful. Yes, the market is probably due for a 40% haircut at some point. But if it takes another 3 years to get there, then the market might increase more than that before then.
There are funds that track the entire S&P 500, but omit those 7 large Tech companies, and their performance has consistently lagged behind the whole index. If you thought years ago that the Tech sector would be do for a correction and backed out of those 7 companies while keeping the rest, you would be objectively worse off.
Buying a dip is still trying to time the market. If you have a view then you implement it, if you have no view then you’d probably dollar cost average into broad indices. I think you can look at your personal stake, what you can afford to lose with your horizon, and then make any necessary changes to limit the downside. Like you say, you might need to give up some possible gains.
I what I mean by timing the market is reallocating based on what I think may happen. Simply increasing contributions (if I can) when the market craters might technically be timing it, but differently than what I mean.
Actually buying the dip is timing the market, not trying to. You really can’t go wrong with that. It becomes an issue when you don’t invest because you’re waiting for the dip.
You could do what the wealthy will do: wait until your neighbour is really struggling, buy their house for cheap, rent it back to them, and bribe local government to make it easier to evict them when they can’t pay.
I’m largely staying out of the stock market, and what I invest I have invested in renewable energy. Most of my savings are in a high interest bank account. Once the economy collapses I plan on investing the money in (green) investment funds, not all at once but buying in gradually month by month while the economy is in panic. That way I don’t gamble on any particular moment being the bottom, I just gamble that the economy will not be fucked forever. If it is we have bigger problems.
Sell high, buy low, basically. Except I’m not wealthy enough for the “sell high” part.
Participating in any of it feels dirty, but I’m not in a position to buy myself a house so I guess I have to do something with my savings.
I’m not looking to profit from the collapse. Funny moves like shorting things isn’t my style. Neither is trying to time the market.
My question is what do I do with my retirement to avoid collapsing with it?
Check what funds it’s invested in, most US or Global indexes/funds will have significant AI/tech exposure as it’s so valuable.
Proper investment platforms will have an “x-ray” view that shows you what you actually own between all of your funds, this can be useful to understand what you are currently invested in.
Look for regional or industry specific funds and spread money between them. (You want quite a few if your doing this to spread risk)
Bonds (loans for countries and big companies) are traditionally safer and drop less in recessions, however many governments are already in a lot of debt and the risk of another bank crisis could effect their value significantly. Bonds also lose value when interest rates go up, so if inflation continues to go up they become dangerous too.
Cash is fine unless your bank goes bust, and if it’s that tits up, do you trust your government’s deposit guarantee?
Gold can be ok short term, but it’s already up a massive amount and could drop like a stone if things DON’T go bad.
Nothing is foolproof, otherwise everyone would be doing it, best is to spread your risk so your not all in on something.
If you aren’t trying to “time the market” why worry about moving things around? Just buy the dip and keep your auto contributions going. It’ll come back eventually right?
That is generally my feeling, yes. But if I were a time traveler there’d still be two or three events I’d probably avoid. Will this be one worth avoiding?
I get that the question is in contradiction to the statement about timing the market; I guess I’m just thinking out loud and wondering other people takes on it is?
Fair enough. A money market is probably the best bet, the issue is always timing tho. I’ve been in mostly cash since the start of the year and missed like 10%+ at least
That being said, idk how much higher the market can really go with so much downward pressure from hormuz/gas and by extension inflation, AI bills coming due, auto/student/car loan crisis, t-bill rates jumping, idk im sure i could think of more but you get the idea.
I dont regret my decision tho, id rather be early than late in this situation.
I dumped all of my risky stocks prior to the SpaceX IPO and reallocated my 401k to bonds. Im about 90% bonds at the moment.
On my active trading account I’m in bonds funds like BIL and SGOV and dividend funds like SCHD. I have some individual stocks in relatively safe industries that should bounce back.
You can never predict the future but it feels like a lot of headwinds on a market who’s gains are concentrated in only handful of companies. I’m ok with sitting out for 12 months or until there is some clarity in the market. I have a major renovation going on right now so spending my cash on property improvements is ok with me.
It depends on how close you are to retiring. If you are more than 10 years away, you are probably better off doing nothing differently. Look at the inevitable dip as a buying opportunity.
Even if you are close, you still need to be careful. Yes, the market is probably due for a 40% haircut at some point. But if it takes another 3 years to get there, then the market might increase more than that before then.
There are funds that track the entire S&P 500, but omit those 7 large Tech companies, and their performance has consistently lagged behind the whole index. If you thought years ago that the Tech sector would be do for a correction and backed out of those 7 companies while keeping the rest, you would be objectively worse off.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/p-500-without-big-tech-131814927.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKEWlTWLgFm2v_Z_KWgtpxWHRJX9oq8AyGrJY_ncAHXMfPfAv-57QtF9de1k6kcxi5jWzRXy9d0PfXrMjpvTBkn0RniESyNydXPMyCCxbCmjNoumHxNTq57EiGAvvdANCn8mNVvsX6jW1q216ri5UDPlWNrscHhG39PN94rdIz7b
So there are some articles saying the opposite
Buying a dip is still trying to time the market. If you have a view then you implement it, if you have no view then you’d probably dollar cost average into broad indices. I think you can look at your personal stake, what you can afford to lose with your horizon, and then make any necessary changes to limit the downside. Like you say, you might need to give up some possible gains.
I what I mean by timing the market is reallocating based on what I think may happen. Simply increasing contributions (if I can) when the market craters might technically be timing it, but differently than what I mean.
Actually buying the dip is timing the market, not trying to. You really can’t go wrong with that. It becomes an issue when you don’t invest because you’re waiting for the dip.
@DarkDarkHouse Take care of the downside and the upside will take care of itself.
You could do what the wealthy will do: wait until your neighbour is really struggling, buy their house for cheap, rent it back to them, and bribe local government to make it easier to evict them when they can’t pay.
I’m largely staying out of the stock market, and what I invest I have invested in renewable energy. Most of my savings are in a high interest bank account. Once the economy collapses I plan on investing the money in (green) investment funds, not all at once but buying in gradually month by month while the economy is in panic. That way I don’t gamble on any particular moment being the bottom, I just gamble that the economy will not be fucked forever. If it is we have bigger problems.
Sell high, buy low, basically. Except I’m not wealthy enough for the “sell high” part.
Participating in any of it feels dirty, but I’m not in a position to buy myself a house so I guess I have to do something with my savings.
Make sure those funds are distributed around because the amount of loans out there mean another bank collapse or 3 is a likely outcome
I’m considering moving much of my 401K to the emerging markets equity fund. Not much exposure to AI there.
Yes, but doesn’t that create a taxable event?
The whole idea of a 401k is that it’s not taxable until you pull stuff out on retirement. You an trade in and out of stuff with no tax implications.
You may have taught me the most important, valuable thing of the last two years. Thanks…Oof.
I’ve been waiting for the bubble to pop and thought I was stuck and could only allot new contributions. I need to do some rebalancing tomorrow.