It seems that youre just a really dumb and uneducated person. I feel bad for you.
Now that we’ve got ad-hominems out of the way, let’s get back on the topic.
Damn, I really thought I explained the self-driving thing, but it just bounced off you, didn’t it. Reaping the effects of AI so soon, huh.
If we only ever evaluated technology on its present state of being, we wouldn’t have planes for instance. That’s not a really sound methodology. “It doesn’t work now. Therefore, it should be abandoned.” Like, what?
If you think that’s how design and engineering works, you’re either 12, or really into LLMs.
Look, I’ll put it really simply for you. I know that if I throw a ball forwards, it will land in front of me. I call predict it, and I can calculate it. It’s based on established laws of physics.
If people, who want to sell me a pig, tell me it’s going to fly next year after I buy it, based on the fact that it learned to walk, that is not a prediction based “on sound methodology”.
Enjoy your slop, it’s not going to get any better, and it’s going to get ALOT more expensive very soon. That’s a prediction, after evaluating current technology.
I am far from dumb. I got 60/60 problems correct on a proctored Raven’s Progressive Matrices as a teenager. That places my pattern recognition much higher than most of the world’s population. I taught myself C++ when I was six years old in 1997.
You’ve created a strawman by recasting my argument to a point that I am not making. I did not say “trust vendor promises” or “ignore current failures.” I said present-state-only evaluation is a bad way to judge emerging technology.
Engineering forecasting is not limited to closed-form physics. It also uses empirical progress, deployment data, cost curves, failure modes, and observed capability gains. Your pig analogy only works if AI had no demonstrated utility and no measurable improvement. That is plainly false.
Criticize cost, energy use, incentives, etc. Those are real arguments. But “some promises are hype, therefore the whole field is slop and cannot improve” is not analysis. It is just cynicism with insults attached.
Wow, I’m very impressed. Reads like billionaire’s wiki page.
Analogy absolutely works. The pig could not walk when it was born, now it can. Which means that next year it’ll fly.
Exactly the same type predictions are advertised for LLMs. It can’t count to 10, but a text predictor will be able to find cure for cancer.
If you’re as smart as you claim you are, you’d go read a few papers on the limitations of the technology as a whole. “It will get better” / “It’s in its infancy” is just pure bullshit. There will be optimizations and gains here and there. But the core technology is not capable of producing what is being promised.
Pig will not fly, I’m affraid, even though it might be able to make do a hop next year.
That’s some pretty absurd logic. It is clear there is no point in continuing this discussion, as you are too easily trapped by logical fallacies and are too quick to jump to insults. Hopefully you can take some time to try to grow as a person.
The field of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence does not depend on the success of Large Language Models, and LLMs quite possibly have reached their limits. I do not see that as relevant.
No, it will be the same field of technology. LLMs are just a facet of AI, currently. I’m done having this discussion with you, as you do not have the capability to grasp rational thought or have a rational discussion.
And, no. You started the insults. I responded with a couple.
It seems that youre just a really dumb and uneducated person. I feel bad for you.
Now that we’ve got ad-hominems out of the way, let’s get back on the topic.
Damn, I really thought I explained the self-driving thing, but it just bounced off you, didn’t it. Reaping the effects of AI so soon, huh.
If you think that’s how design and engineering works, you’re either 12, or really into LLMs.
Look, I’ll put it really simply for you. I know that if I throw a ball forwards, it will land in front of me. I call predict it, and I can calculate it. It’s based on established laws of physics.
If people, who want to sell me a pig, tell me it’s going to fly next year after I buy it, based on the fact that it learned to walk, that is not a prediction based “on sound methodology”.
Enjoy your slop, it’s not going to get any better, and it’s going to get ALOT more expensive very soon. That’s a prediction, after evaluating current technology.
I am far from dumb. I got 60/60 problems correct on a proctored Raven’s Progressive Matrices as a teenager. That places my pattern recognition much higher than most of the world’s population. I taught myself C++ when I was six years old in 1997.
You’ve created a strawman by recasting my argument to a point that I am not making. I did not say “trust vendor promises” or “ignore current failures.” I said present-state-only evaluation is a bad way to judge emerging technology.
Engineering forecasting is not limited to closed-form physics. It also uses empirical progress, deployment data, cost curves, failure modes, and observed capability gains. Your pig analogy only works if AI had no demonstrated utility and no measurable improvement. That is plainly false.
Criticize cost, energy use, incentives, etc. Those are real arguments. But “some promises are hype, therefore the whole field is slop and cannot improve” is not analysis. It is just cynicism with insults attached.
Wow, I’m very impressed. Reads like billionaire’s wiki page.
Analogy absolutely works. The pig could not walk when it was born, now it can. Which means that next year it’ll fly.
Exactly the same type predictions are advertised for LLMs. It can’t count to 10, but a text predictor will be able to find cure for cancer.
If you’re as smart as you claim you are, you’d go read a few papers on the limitations of the technology as a whole. “It will get better” / “It’s in its infancy” is just pure bullshit. There will be optimizations and gains here and there. But the core technology is not capable of producing what is being promised.
Pig will not fly, I’m affraid, even though it might be able to make do a hop next year.
That’s some pretty absurd logic. It is clear there is no point in continuing this discussion, as you are too easily trapped by logical fallacies and are too quick to jump to insults. Hopefully you can take some time to try to grow as a person.
The field of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence does not depend on the success of Large Language Models, and LLMs quite possibly have reached their limits. I do not see that as relevant.
Nice goalpost move.
“In the future, “AI” will be a completely different technology”.
Lol, why do I even bother discussing things with techbros… Spare the “insults” part, you’re the one who started that.
No, it will be the same field of technology. LLMs are just a facet of AI, currently. I’m done having this discussion with you, as you do not have the capability to grasp rational thought or have a rational discussion.
And, no. You started the insults. I responded with a couple.